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Outbox failure prediction practice

Attempt before reference code or calibration.

  1. Predict producer rows for after_order, after_outbox and after_commit. Retry with the same ID, then with a changed payload.
  2. Predict broker entries and sent flag for before_publish, after_publish and after_mark. Identify the duplicate window and the data-loss bug from reversing publish/mark order.
  3. Predict inbox and balance at after_inbox, after_effect and after_commit. Show what retry does in each case.
  4. Deliver two different IDs with equal amounts and one zero amount. Explain why deduplicating by amount is incorrect.
  5. Delete an inbox marker and replay its event in a disposable database. Record the duplicated effect and a retention-policy requirement.
  6. Replace additive updates with state replacement. Show why reordered delivery now requires another policy.
  7. Add an external email action to the consumer diagram. Mark the boundary SQL rollback cannot cover and connect it to the original saga failure review.

Keep three independently designed executable cases with predicted and observed rows. Do not equate controlled exceptions, ordinary connection reopening and machine power loss. Preserve source versions and assistance notes.